Date: April 8, 2019

NCAAB (Men's College Basketball Championship Game)

Eagles Nest:  Virginia -1

Whaaaaaat?  Are you kidding me (again?)  There's no mystery here for us once again.  The bookmakers are playing head games ONCE again and this has to be the biggest head game attempt over the public ever.   The bookmakers went to another level to come up with this -1 line as it doesn't make sense at all.  (Note that this line will go to -2 or -3 prior to game time.)    There must have been a situation where the head bookmaker had appointments with psychotherapists, sports psychologists, Edgar Casie,  Penn and Teller, Houdini,  Performed analytic seances, contacted martians, aliens, Donald Trump and the infamous"Illuminati" to get this information.. and... unfortunately the spread is "just so wrong".

Only a Texas Tech fan base and their Alumni has been sucked into this ridiculous story about Texas Tech and their basketball team.   As we all know who have watched these coaches through the years,  Tom Izzo is a man that has been the coach of Michigan State for MANY MANY years (23).  There are currently only 2 other "notable" NCAAB men's coaches who has greater tenure than Coach Izzo that has earned their "salt".  That's Coach K, Duke (38) (5 rings) ,  Jim Boeheim, Syracuse (42 years) (5 rings), Tom Izzo (23 years) has (1 ring).  

You can't continue to win games in this business and NOT change how your team win games.  Tom Izzo IS a very good defensive coach.  However, he's not getting this 3 point shooting and young freshmen playing scenario which have simply changed the game of college and pro basketball. Yet we "expected" him to lose this tournament earlier, albeit NOT to Texas Tech on this past Saturday.  In addition, they (Michigan State) simply just got outplayed and beat down by 10.  

Texas Tech is a good team with many talented players.   They're well balanced Sophomores and Seniors which provide them with stability, wisdom and confidence.  Three stable starters averages roughly about 10 points per game and their leading shooter and scoring leader Jarret Culver leads the team at just over 18.6 points per game.  They are also very good defensively and collectively speaking may be the better more athletic team on paper and with the naked eye.  

But wait just one minute.  Texas Tech is NOT a team that you want to place your money on this year for any reason.  Again, winning against Michigan State does nothing for the basketball enthusiast.  You can look at stats and games all day long.  What the stats and first eye test can't tell you is about "Strategy" and Tradition.   

If Duke was playing this Texas Tech team  in this championship game the spread would be 9-12 points as it should be and rightfully so.  Texas Tech IS a solid team.  They got past two really good teams that are very good.  Gonzaga Bulldogs and the Iowa State in a Rubber Match game in Texas.  The Big 12 teams are NOT the ACC teams in no form, fashion etc. etc. 

Virginia is the better team here in this game tonight.  Don't get this wrong and don't allow their style of play throw you into outer space somewhere trying to "figure out" whose going to win this game.    If it doesn't make common sense it probably isn't going to happen.    Stop wondering who is going to win this game tonight.  In the past 3 years the "OBVIOUS" team won the games.    Villanova +2 -2016,  North Carolina -2017 and Villanova U - 2018.   In fact, the past 10 years the NCAAB Championship games have all been won by East Coast teams.   These teams aren't in the same leagues for a "REASON".  

Virginia has been ACC battle tested all year by the likes of Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Maryland, North Carolina State etc etc.   Tony Bennett and Virginia will bring home yet another trophy and title to the east coast and Atlantic Coast Conference.  It's not going to change because the "ACC" players and coaches are just superior.    It's like Batman fighting Robin,  or Thanos fighting the Avengers or let's see who comes out at the end of a Stephen Segal or Jason Statham movie.    We've seen these types of movies too many times and we know how it ends.   It'll be an entertaining game until the last 3 minutes.   We win by 6 points here easily.   If you think that Virginia is going to allow this team to get as close as the prior team (Auburn), then you don't understand Virginia U. and Tony Bennett's resolve and strengths.

Take the Virginia Cavilers and the -1 points for an easy win in the end.  For those who like "The Vig".  Take the -5 +200 on Virginia. Slam it baby! 

Prediction:  Virginia 73;  Texas Tech 65.     (Actual score: Virginia 85- Texas Tech 77) DSP winner!