February 3, 2015

Morpheous

NCAA - Indiana State U. +6

Today, we get the easy money by taking the home team here in Indiana State.  Look, we absolutely LOVE Northern Iowa. They might win this game however, they won't do so very easily at home playing this Indiana State team who hasn't been easy to play in their arena if you are the visiting team.   Indiana State has beaten teams in their homes with teams that have good resumes in the likes of Evansville, Bradley, Loyola Illinois and Southern Illinois.  We are not indicating here that this Indiana State team will beat them in the ground here at all.  What we are saying is that these two teams match up better than one might expect.  In addition, there are too many factors in this games that indicate that this one will be closer than expected for the following reasons:

a) Indiana State went into the Iowa and made it a very close game in Northern Iowa where this team only won by 6. 

b) Indiana State felt they were jobbed  by the refs in the game in Iowa... and they were!

c)  Indiana State is playing at home where their record is 8-4 and they outscore their opponents by at least 2 points. 

d) Ranked teams going into un-ranked team territory only win about 40% of the time. 

e) Northern Iowa is simply nervous about this game due to the past years where the final score has only been within a range of 4 points.

The early line estimate on FoxStat indicate that the line should be No. Iowa by -7.  The line is dropping like a 2 pound weighted fish line in the Santa Cruz wharf area as it is down 2.5 points to 5.5.  We agree.  This game could possibly an upset in the making but we won't hold out breath there as we can't literally bet outright against a team that we fully respect right? WRONG!  We don't care about teams that we enjoy watching. We only care about gettin' paid. 

We get paid by taking the intelligent play.  We take the 5.5 and buy it to 6.  We should be safe here either way.  However, we  have lost games by .5 points in the past. Been there done that!  It doesn't feel good to lose any money by any amount however, 1/2 points are preposterous and so chances of us doing that again is slim and none.

Take  Indiana State as we believe that there may be a slight chance for an upset here. However the better opportunity is to just take the dog on the spread and be happy!   Slam it baby!

Prediction: Northern Iowa  67; Indiana State 65